Centre For Strategic Analyses And Forecasts

3^rd year digital marketing student at SMK College of Applied Sciences. President of the International Student Network (ISN) at SMK. Recently submitted a Bachelor thesis titled "Ego, FOMO, and Consumer Behavior: A Deep Dive into Marketing Strategies and Psychological Influences in Lithuanian Societies." Participated in the Erasmus Exchange Program (Sep 2023 – Jan 2024) at NHL Stenden, Leeuwarden, Netherlands. Attended Erasmus BIP programs: "Discover Smart City Trends, Technologies & Innovations" (Aug 26–30, 2024) at the Estonian Entrepreneurship University of Applied Sciences, Tallinn, and "Future Politics in International Context" (May 5–9, 2025) at the University of Łódź, Poland.

 

3^rd year digital marketing student at SMK College of Applied Sciences. President of the International Student Network (ISN) at SMK. Recently submitted a Bachelor thesis titled "Ego, FOMO, and Consumer Behavior: A Deep Dive into Marketing Strategies and Psychological Influences in Lithuanian Societies." Participated in the Erasmus Exchange Program (Sep 2023 – Jan 2024) at NHL Stenden, Leeuwarden, Netherlands. Attended Erasmus BIP programs: "Discover Smart City Trends, Technologies & Innovations" (Aug 26–30, 2024) at the Estonian Entrepreneurship University of Applied Sciences, Tallinn, and "Future Politics in International Context" (May 5–9, 2025) at the University of Łódź, Poland.3^rd year digital marketing student at SMK College of Applied Sciences. President of the International Student Network (ISN) at SMK. Recently submitted a Bachelor thesis titled "Ego, FOMO, and Consumer Behavior: A Deep Dive into Marketing Strategies and Psychological Influences in Lithuanian Societies." Participated in the Erasmus Exchange Program (Sep 2023 – Jan 2024) at NHL Stenden, Leeuwarden, Netherlands. Attended Erasmus BIP programs: "Discover Smart City Trends, Technologies & Innovations" (Aug 26–30, 2024) at the Estonian Entrepreneurship University of Applied Sciences, Tallinn, and "Future Politics in International Context" (May 5–9, 2025) at the University of Łódź, Poland.

 

1^st year student of the second-cycle studies in international relations at the Polish Naval Academy. His scientific interests focus on political systems and international security. Since the beginning of his studies, he has been developing interests related to North Korea. Author of scientific articles devoted to the foreign policy of North Korea. Participant in three interdisciplinary scientific conferences. The 12th International Asian Congress, the 16th Diplomatic Festival and Digital Baltic Junior. The subject of his bachelor's thesis was devoted to the issue of totalitarian states of the 20th and 21st centuries.

 

a final-year MA student of Russian, Eurasian, and Eastern European Studies at the Aleksanteri Institute, University of Helsinki and a graduate of Law (LLB) from King’s College London. Her research interests include, but are not limited to, Central Asia and Russian politics and economics.

 

obtained a bachelor's degree in international and political studies at the Faculty of International and Political Studies of the University of Lodz (2024), currently studying political science at the same faculty. He is the chairman of the Student and Doctoral Research Group PolitikON and a member of the Student Research Group of Central and Eastern Europe. His areas of interest include Polish foreign policy in Central and Eastern Europe and energy security of the European Union countries.

 

senior advisor on total defence at the Swedish Armed Forces Defence Staff, Directorate of strategic plans and policy. He has a background in the armed forces, the defence research community and the private sector.

 

founder and CEO of the Baltic Security Foundation. He holds a Master of Laws in Public International Law and has been involved in and researching security and defense policy for several years. He has co-edited several books and authored articles on Baltic security in the context of European and transatlantic security. In addition to being a fellow at the Jamestown Foundation, a Denton Fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, and a non-resident fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, Tabuns is also a visiting scholar at the Riga Graduate School of Law and has given guest lectures on his research at universities in Europe and the United States.

a distinguished expert in international law and human rights, with a focus on minority issues and women's rights, a lecturer and diplomat, former Senior Minority Fellow at OHCHR. She holds a PhD in legal sciences from the University of Gdańsk and habilitation from the University of Łódź. Currently, she serves as a Senior Legal Adviser to the OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities in The Hague. Member of the Board of the Association of Polish Scientists of Lithuania, as well as the Association of Polish Lawyers in Lithuania. The main scientific interests of Elżbieta Kuzborska-Pacha revolve around the protection of human rights of national minorities. She is the author of several dozen articles and scientific publications, a speaker at numerous international conferences. She deals with matters related to consulting in the field of effective national policy to counteract conflicts and support integration.

 

PhD in social science, founder, benefactor and CEO of the Nordic Institute Foundation. For years, he has been exploring everything Nordic. He gained skills and knowledge not only at the University of Lodz, the University of Malmö, the University of Stockholm, the University of Southern Denmark in Odense, but also at State Street Bank, PwC and Amazon.

 

lecturer at the Institute of International and Security Studies, University of Wrocław. His research focuses on national security issues, in particular hybrid threats, maritime security and Poland's strategic culture. He is the author of the books "Internal Security of the Republic of Poland. Selected Issues 1989-2013" (2013), "Evolution of the Polish Armed Forces in the Years 1990-2020 in the Context of Poland's Strategic Culture" (2022) and co-author of the book "The Polish Anti-Terrorist System and the Realities of Terrorist Attacks in the Second Decade of the 21st Century" (2020) and author of the analyses: Protection of Critical Infrastructure in Polish Maritime Areas in the Context of Hybrid Threats (PTBN 2023) and Hybrid Threats from Russia to NATO’s Littoral States on the Baltic Sea Maritime Critical Infrastructure and Lessons from the Black Sea: Observations from Poland, a Frontline State (GIDS, 2025).

 

PhD – social anthropologist whose research focuses on ethnicity and regionalism. He holds a PhD in Social Anthropology from Vytautas Magnus University (2022), where he defended a dissertation on ethnic and national identification in Southeastern Lithuania. He also holds a Master’s degree in Cultural History from the University of Warsaw. Vyšniauskas is currently a postdoctoral researcher at the Lithuanian Centre for Social Sciences, working on a Research Council of Lithuania-funded project exploring national minority youth identities in the Šalčininkai District. He is also a researcher at the Center for Social Anthropology at Vytautas Magnus University. His publications examine regional identity, interethnic relations, and cultural memory in Lithuania, with fieldwork primarily focused on the Šalčininkai region. He has presented his research at numerous international conferences, including those organized by the Conference on Baltic Studies in Europe (CBSE), the International Society for Ethnology and Folklore (SIEF), and the Nordic Ethnology and Folklore Conference.

 

PhD (habilitated doctor) in political science, associate professor at the Institute of Political Sciences of the University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn. Researcher of the foreign and security policy of the Russian Federation towards Poland and the Baltic states, as well as the socio-political conditions of the development of the Kaliningrad region of the Russian Federation. Author of the monograph The Kaliningrad Region of the Russian Federation and the International Security of Central and Eastern Europe. Between Geopolitics and Constructivism (FNCE, Poznań 2021). Member of the Polish Political Science Association and the Polish Geopolitical Association.

 

PhD – he received his PhD from the Slavic Department at the University of Toronto (Canada) in 2017, where he wrote his doctoral thesis on the myth of the Battle of Stalingrad. A specialist in history and politics, his research interests primarily lie in Russian and Soviet military culture and propaganda. Before coming to the Pilecki Institute, he taught at the University of Toronto and Queen's University, Ontario. He remains an honorary fellow at the Centre for International & Defence Policy in Kingston, Canada, and regularly comments and writes for major media outlets across the world. In 2024, Dr. Garner was made a Fellow of the Royal Historical Society.

 

analyst for Baltic States in the German and Northern Europe Team of the Centre for Eastern Studies. Previously worked at the War Studies University (Poland), where he dealt with issues of foreign, internal and security policy of the Baltic States. He teaches history of the Baltic States at the Baltic Studies Department of the University of Warsaw. Collaborator of “Przegląd Bałtycki”. He has published texts in the portals “Nowa Europa Wschodnia”, “Polska Zbrojna”. Graduate of the National Defence University and the Centre for Eastern Europe Studies at the University of Warsaw. Studied in Vilnius and Kaunas. Co-author of the album 100 Poles Distinguished in Latvian History.

 

Dr.Pol. Sc., M.Sc.Econ., CEO and founder of Hellenberg International Ltd and CEO of Hellenberg HK Limited. He has served as a Special Adviser (EU and Foreign Affairs) to Prime Minister. He has 25 years of academic and crisis management researcher incl. at the United Nations (DRD). Board member and Fund manager of the Paasikivi Society; Board member of the Geopolitical Society of Finland; Member of the Finnish-Russian Scientific and Technical Committee; Board Member of the Baltic Civil Defence Network; Senior Advisor at the IMA (Washington); Member of the Advisory Board of the Cyberwatch Finland.

 

, PhD (habilitated doctor) in political science, associate professor at the Institute of Political Studies of the Polish Academy of Sciences (ISP PAN). Specialist in international relations, in particular Polish foreign policy. She obtained two master's degrees in international relations – within the Polish-French European Studies Program implemented by the Warsaw School of Economics and Sciences Po in Paris (1998), as well as at the Institute of International Relations of the University of Warsaw (1999). In 1999, she began working at ISP PAN, where she was employed first as an assistant and then as an assistant professor. On December 6, 2002, she obtained a doctorate in humanities in the discipline of political science at the same institute based on the thesis The impact of the conflict in the former Yugoslavia on the relations of the United States with the European Union (1990-1995), which was distinguished with the Prime Minister's Award. In 2004-2005, she was a scholarship holder of the Foundation for Polish Science. On February 24, 2012, she obtained a postdoctoral degree in the humanities in the discipline of political science at the ISP PAN based on her scientific achievements and the dissertation Polish Foreign Policy in the Face of Selected Differences in Transatlantic Relations (1989-2004). In the same year, she was promoted within the ISP PAN structures to the position of associate professor (since 2018, professor of the institute). She is a member of the team of the Department of Central and Eastern Europe and Post-Soviet Studies at the ISP PAN. Since 2022, she has been managing the project entitled The Three Seas Initiative Research Center at the ISP PAN. In January 2023, she was elected by the ISP PAN Scientific Council as a member of the Ethics Committee of the ISP PAN Scientific Council.

 

Center for Strategic Analysis and Forecasting (CSAF) at the Faculty of International and Political Studies of the University of Lodz, under the direction of Professor Ryszard Machnikowski, PhD, Dean of the Faculty, is honored to invite to one of the most important scientific activities of Summer Semester 2024/2025:

 

 

3ʳᵈ International Centre for Strategic Analysis and Forecast (CSAF) Summit

Topic: Defending Baltic States. Security of the Baltic Sea Region

Rapid transformation of the international order, visible today, fundamentally affects security of the Central and Eastern European States. Threat of Russia’s aggression is not diminishing – on the contrary,  NATO’s eastern flank states: Finland, Baltic States, Poland but also Sweden, Denmark and even Germany are endangered with Russia’s attack (both conventional and non – conventional). Contemporary challenges and threats to the states of the Baltic Sea Region make close military and political cooperation a must – neither is able to cope with these dangers separately, but taken altogether they form a significant power to be reckoned with.

 

The conference's aims are to describe and diagnose current changes in European security structures as well as to make plausible predictions of future developments in order to make adequate preparations and effective countermeasures for the future dangers escalating from Russia. We invite specialists in the area of European security and intend to create the platform for the exchange of ideas and experiences to work out viable solutions which may help governments in their hard task of protecting Baltic Sea Region states and societies being under constant Russia's aggression.

 

The Summit will be held on 12 June, 2025 at the seat of the Faculty of International and Political Studies of the University of Lodz, at Skladowa st. 43 in Lodz, Poland.

 

Summit program:

 

13:30 - 15:15 First student-doctoral panel session: “Awareness of military and non-military threats to the security of the Baltic States”.
 

The panel will include:

• Tomasz Kirdejka (SMK Aukštoji mokykla),
• Adam Kozlovski (UJ),
• Jakub Radaszkiewicz (AMW in Gdynia),
• Marcin Mikielski (WSMiP UŁ),
• Aleksander Zalech (WSMiP UŁ),
• Lila Bednarska (University of Helsinki)
• Kanan Ahmadzada (Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań)
• The meeting will be moderated by Igor Miśta (WSMiP UŁ).
•  

15.15 - 16.00 Coffee break

16.00 - 19.00 Second expert panel session “What to do? How to fend off Russian aggression in the Baltic Sea region?”
 

The panel will include:

• Michael Malm (Swedish Armed Forces),
• Otto Tabuns (Baltic Security Foundation),
• Prof. Elżbieta Kuzborska-Pacha (OSCE),
• Wojciech Lieder (Nordic Institute),
• Michal Piekarski (UWr),
• Vidmantas Vyšniauskas (Vytautas Magnus University in Kaunas),
• Prof. Krzysztof Zęgota (UWM),
• Ian Garner (Pilecki Institute),
• Bartosz Chmielewski (OSW),
• Timo Hellenberg (Hellenberg International) - online,
• Prof. Agnieszka Orzelska-Stączek (ISP PAN)
• The meeting will be moderated by Ryszard Machnikowski (WSMiP UŁ).

 

A moderator will supervise the course of the debate on each panel. Going beyond the standard schemes of organizing scientific conferences, CSAF intends to create a discussion platform for participants and enable them to share their knowledge, observations and forecasts. Therefore, we do not anticipate the presentation of longer papers, preferring instead to conduct thematic discussion panels led by a moderator, in order to create the widest possible platform for the exchange of thoughts and experiences, so that the audience could learn the views of the most outstanding experts in the discussed fields.

The expert panel follows strictly the Chatham House Rule.

The event under the media patronage of the Defence24 portal

The 2ᶮᵈ International Centre for Strategic Analysis and Forecast (CSAF) Summit, titled „Russia's aggression against the West”was held on 28-29 November, 2024 at the seat of the Faculty of International and Political Studies of the University of Lodz.

Panelists and Summit program:

 

28 November, 2024: Panel session I "Russia's kinetic actions against the West (diversion, terrorism, targeted killings, arsons, etc.)"

 

14.30 – 15.15 Keynote speaker presentation: dr Kacper Rękawek “We have forgotten about state terrorism. We were wrong.”

 

15.15 – 17.30 Panel discussion (Kacper Rękawek, Xavier Raufer, Hans-Jakob Schindler, Morgan Finnsiö, Timo Hellenberg, Ruslan Trad, moderator: dr Ryszard Machnikowski)

 

17.30 – 17.45 Summing up

 

29 November, 2024: Panel session II “Russia's non-kinetic actions against the West (propaganda, disinformation, cyberattacks, influence ops, etc.)"

 

10.30 – 11.15 Keynote speaker presentation: Denys Kolesnyk “Winning without fighting: the strategic edge of non-kinetic warfare.”

 

11.15 – 13.30 Panel discussion (Denys Kolesnyk, Léo Péria-Peigné, Kamil Basaj, Michał Marek, Maksym Sijer, Katarzyna Chawryło, Christian Lange, moderator: dr Andrzej Kozłowski)

 

13.30– 13.45 Conference ending

 

Russia's covert aggression against the West escalates year after year, at least since the (in)famous Putin's 2007 Munich Conference speech. This includes both kinetic and non-kinetic actions directed against both Western and Central European states and the EU itself.

The conference's aims are to describe and diagnose current situations in these fields as well as to make plausible predictions of future developments in order to make adequate preparations and effective countermeasures for the future dangers escalating from Russia. We want to invite specialists in the areas of both kinetic and non-kinetic aggressive actions and create the platform for the exchange of ideas and experiences to work out viable solutions which may help governments in their hard task of protecting states and societies being under constant Russia's aggression. In order to ensure the greatest possible freedom of expression, the conference was held in accordance with the Chatham House Rule. An additional opportunity for discussion in a less formal atmosphere was the banquet organized on the first day of the conference and the lunch that concluded it.

 

On April 13, 2023 at the seat of the Faculty of International and Political Studies of the University of Lodz, a Inaugural Panel Conference „The impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war on the global geostrategic situation – will the regional conflict change the post-Cold War paradigm of relations between the powers? Opportunities and threats – identification, diagnosis, recommendations” was held. The Conference was organized by the Center for Strategic Analysis and Forecasting(CSAF), under the direction of Professor Ryszard Machnikowski, PhD, Dean of the Faculty.

 

Panelists and Conference program:

11:00 – 11:15 Welcoming guests, speech Cassandra's Legacy, by the head of Center for Strategic Analysis and Forecasting, Professor Ryszard Machnikowski, PhD.

11:15- 13:00 Panel I – Will the local conflict change the post-Cold War paradigm of relations between superpowers? The future of European unity in the context of differences in the strategic goals of the member states. Panelists: P. Grochmalski, T. Hellenberg, X. Raufer, A. Anders, moderator: R. Machnikowski;

13:15 – 15:00 Panel II – The use of paramilitary organizations in creating international politics. Humanitarian situation and human rights. Panelists:D. Kolesnyk, R. Trad, A. Bieńczyk-Missala, moderator: R. Czulda;

15:45 – 17:15 Panel III – Russian disinformation and propaganda activities. Panelists: K. Chawryło, M. Marek, M. Sijer, moderator: A. Kozłowski.

 

Taking into account the complexity of the ongoing conflict and its wide implications for the stability of the European security order and the global situation, the ambition of the organizers of the Conference was to create an interdisciplinary forum for knowledge exchange, thanks to which a multidimensional analysis of the issue will be possible. The discussed topics were focused around three thematic blocks, to which separate discussion panels were devoted.

The course of the debate on each panel was supervised by a moderator. Going beyond the standard schemes of organizing scientific conferences, CSAF intention was to create a discussion platform for participants and enable them to share their knowledge, observations and forecasts regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war and the expected consequences of this conflict. Therefore, the organizers did not anticipate the presentation of papers, preferring instead to conduct thematic discussion panels led by a moderator, in order to create the widest possible platform for the exchange of thoughts and experiences. The invitation was addressed to the best domestic and foreign specialists and experts in their fields.

The Conference started at 11.00 from the speech by the director of the CSAF and the Dean of the Faculty, Professor Ryszard Machnikowski. Professor's speech was titled Cassandra's Legacy. This ancient myth was the starting point for considering why politicians who, thanks to scientific tools, think-tanks, etc., are able to "predict the future", often followed their own path, which leads to the failure of their policy. The myth of Cassandra refreshes itself in modern times – it is a good metaphor for politicians ignoring obvious signs of truth, which causes them to keep making the same mistakes over and over again.

The participants of the first discussion panel were: Professor Xavier Raufer, PhD – one of the most eminent French specialists in security, radical movements, terrorist and criminal organizations in Europe and in the world, criminologist; Timo Hellenberg, PhD – CEO of Hellenberg International Ltd., an internationally recognized security expert who also served as Special Advisor (EU Affairs) to the Prime Minister of Finland and advised several government agencies in Europe, the United States, Russia and Southeast Asia; Professor Piotr Grochmalski – journalist, war correspondent, political scientist, lecturer at the Nicolaus Copernicus University in Torun and at the Institute of Strategic Studies at the Faculty of National Security of the Academy of War Studies in Warsaw; Andrzej Anders, PhD – analyst at the Boym Institute, an expert on China and Southeast Asia. The discussion on this panel was moderated by Professor Ryszard Machnikowski, PhD, Foreign Expert and Fellow and Associate Researcher of the Security and Defense Research Team at the French CSFRS – Conseil Superieur de la Formation et de la Recherche Strategique, since 2016 member of the Conseil Scientifique of M. Sc. Studies in criminology at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers in Paris, specializing in terrorism, political violence and security studies, transatlantic relations, and problems of globalization, author of three monographies and more than 70 scientific articles, chapters and reviews.

Timo Hellenberg – as a witness of those events – recalled in his speech the sequence of events during the Euromaidan in 2013 and 2014. He also recalled the history of Ukraine's association agreement with the European Union, the rejection of which led to mass protests on the streets of Kiev. Second speaker – Professor Xavier Raufer, using historical examples, argued that the projection of events from the past to predict the future is ineffective and is rather wishful thinking than forecasting. Professor Raufer noted that today Islamic terrorism is no longer as great threat as it was 10-20 years ago. However, he indicated two areas which, according to Western experts, will be crucial for European security in the coming decades – the first is the Carpathian mountain chain, which is an area difficult to control, suitable for the development of smuggling and organized crime, the second is the Black Sea region, controlled by Russia and China. Another panelist, Professor Piotr Grochmalski, stated that following the activities of Russia in the sphere of foreign policy during the presidency of Vladimir Putin since 2000, the idea of restoring the Russian empire was clear. The professor referred to an article published in Foreign Policy concerning a potential future union of Ukraine and Poland, modeled on the former Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. This would enable Ukraine to quickly join NATO and the European Union. According to the professor, such a concept, although difficult to implement, could overcome the resistance of the “old states” of European Union on Ukraine's accession. The last of the panelists, Andrzej Anders, discussed the subject of China's perception of the Russian-Ukrainian war. He stated that this is an important factor accompanying this conflict. China has two outlooks on the war in Ukraine – the first, local, interprets this war as a regional conflict, while the second sees this war as a conflict between Russia and the United States.

The second panel was attended by: Professor Agnieszka Bieńczyk-Missala, PhD – researcher and didactic employee at the Faculty of Political Science and International Studies of the University of Warsaw, chief specialist in the Polish Institute of International Affairs (2006-2008), participant of cooperation within the Network on Humanitarian Action and many other national and international scientific projects; Denys Kolesnyk – political analyst, specialist in Central and Eastern European Countries, Russia and its defense policy; Ruslan Trad – Resident Fellow for Security Research at the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab, interested in Eurasia, Syria, conflicts, hybrid warfare, and mercenary groups, author and co-author of three books and a wide range of articles related to the Syrian civil war, Russian foreign policy, and security. The course of the debate was supervised by Professor Robert Czulda, PhD, from the University of Lodz, former lecturer at the University of Maryland, analyst for Iran and the Persian Gulf, working with IHS Jane's and the Atlantic Council.

Professor Agnieszka Bieńczyk-Missala talked about the humanitarian issues of the war in Ukraine and the violation of humanitarian law by Russia during this conflict. She also discussed the transfer of children from the occupied territories of Ukraine to Russia, as well as the issue of war crimes. Ruslan Trad's speech concerned the activity of Russian paramilitary organizations, such as the Wagner Group, not only in Ukraine, but also in earlier conflicts, such as in Syria. Denys Kolesnyk talked about the backstage of the information warfare conducted by Russia in connection with the war in Ukraine.

The participants of the third discussion panel were: Michał Marek, PhD – lecturer at the Faculty of International and Political Studies of the Jagiellonian University, an expert on Russian propaganda activities and social and political changes in Ukraine; Katarzyna Chawryło – analyst in the Russian Team of the Centre for Eastern Studies in Warsaw, specialist in the social issues in Russia and the mechanisms and narratives of Russian propaganda; Maksym Sijer – analyst, lecturer, scientist: researcher of the role of cognitive errors in Russian information operations, Chief Operating Officer at the Disinfo Digest. The discussion on this panel was moderated by Andrzej Kozłowski, PhD from the University of Lodz, an expert in international security, terrorism and cybersecurity, chief editor of CyberDefence24.pl.

The comments of the participants of the last discussion panel focused on Russian propaganda and disinformation activities. Katarzyna Chawryło talked about the main narrative lines created by the Russian media. Michał Marek defined the methods by which the Russians try to influence public opinion in Poland, for example through the social media. Maksym Sijer talked about the content with which Russian propaganda tries to infect the Polish media.

The organizers of the Inaugural Panel Conference hope that due to the selection of guests and a wide range of topics, it was an opportunity to take an innovative look at these issues and will contribute to the dissemination of knowledge about them.